UK eCommerce in 2024: Struggles, Bright Spots, and Hopes for Recovery
![UK eCommerce in 2024: Struggles, Bright Spots, and Hopes for Recovery](https://cdn.asp.events/CLIENT_CloserSt_D86EA381_5056_B739_5482D50A1A831DDD/sites/ecommerce-expo-2024/media/libraries/news/Content-Hub-images/May-eCommerce-Deep-Dive-1-.png/fit-in/700x9999/filters:no_upscale())
2023 Revenue Growth Overview
Monitoring the performance of a market can sometimes give easy-to-understand conclusions. Consider the below graph for example. It shows revenue growth for the eCommerce market in 2023 (blue line for the first half of the graph), then a three-pronged forecast for growth across 2024, which we set out at the start of the year. The yellow line shows the expected growth (i.e. what the trend lines suggest should happen), then there is an alternative that tracks what could happen if trading conditions are a bit more favourable (green line) and if they turn out to be a bit worse (red line).
(Image source: IMRG)
Actual Performance in 2024
The blue line into 2024 shows what has actually happened so far this year. So – it is pretty clear to see that it has been a torrid year for eCommerce in the UK. Not only has performance been below expectation, it has been consistently beneath even the lower estimate of trading conditions. Year-to-date (YTD – Jan-Apr 2024 vs Jan-Apr 2023 year-on-year uplift) the market is tracking down -4.7%; the lower estimate of performance would bring it in at -2% for the year as a whole. Speaking to retailers, this does tend to tally with their experience – the trading environment is just proving very, very tough at the moment.
Sector-Specific Performance
It's important to note that the poor performance for eCommerce has not been across the board; there are bright spots. Clothing, for example, is down -6.4% YTD against a forecast of -2%. Yet within the clothing category, footwear has had more weeks of positive growth in 2024 than negative. Meanwhile menswear has frequently recorded declines of -10% and more. At the other end of the scale though health & beauty is seeing strong growth online, with revenue up +8.9% YTD against a forecast of +7%. Fragrance in particular is driving that growth.
Potential for Turnaround
Does this mean then, with the exception of health & beauty, that eCommerce is guaranteed to have a poor year for growth in 2024?
Not necessarily. While it may now require a pretty serious turnaround in fortunes for growth to come in anywhere near the expected forecast (0%), it’s also far from certain that it will continue at the same very low growth rate we’ve seen so far this year. The forecast chart above showed growth split out by month, if we split it out by week we can see something slightly different happening.
Impact of Calendar Events on Growth
(Image source: IMRG)
The red box shows growth in 2024 so far. Some of the sharp declines are due to some key retail events moving forward a week in the calendar (Mothers’ Day, Easter, the mayday bank holiday also went back a week; these usually bring discounting campaigns in the lead-up) so the year-on-year figure is not a proper like-for-like. If you remove those skewed dips, the trajectory – from a very poor January – is toward the 0% base line. This graph includes the first two weeks of May, which were positive – that is the first time we have recorded two consecutive weeks of positive growth since April 2021. The sun coming out was likely a significant factor after a cold and wet April.
Looking Ahead: Summer Boosts?
This doesn’t mean that demand is suddenly exploding back to life again but, in the past 36 months, 34 of them have seen negative growth for eCommerce (the other two were flat rather than notable positive growth). At some point, the declines will reach a natural end; it can’t keep falling away forever, and it feels like we might be approaching that now.
Add in a Euro football tournament and an Olympics, and the potential for some feelgood events this summer may provide an additional boost to demand.
But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves…
Latest News
-
Recognising excellence in the world of eCommerce the ceremony will take place after day one of eCommerce Expo.
-
Martin Musiol from GenerativeAI.net on Finding Tailored Solutions For Your Business With AI
27 Mar 2024 Laura DazonExplore Martin's journey into AI, and discover his insights on integrating AI into business operations and how can AI enhance creativity. -
The 3 Keys to Success in eCommerce Right Now
27 Mar 2024Learn eCommerce success essentials from Chloë Thomas: adapt, profit, engage. Test and innovate to thrive in today's competitive market. -
What's wrong with online fashion?
27 Mar 2024 Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight Director, IMRGAs I mentioned in a previous article, eCommerce is going through a tough period at the moment. Following the huge growth online during the lockdowns, it has fallen away consistently as we’ve entered a ... -
ECommerce Talent: Past, Present & Future
27 Mar 2024Discover essential insights into eCommerce talent sourcing trends with Andy Davies, from Vertical Advantage. Learn about salary shifts, leadership gaps, and strategies for sustainable growth. -
Are You Strategising Growth This Year?
04 Mar 2024IMRG’s recent session highlighted key insights for eCommerce growth: 🎧 Listen to the Full Session In This Session: eCommerce Downturn: 2022 saw negative growth in the UK's eCommerce sector, largel ... -
Learn how to go composable with Lampoo, luxury second-hand fashion retailer.
-
A tough, tough start to the year for online retailers
27 Feb 2024 Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight Director, IMRGWith trading conditions proving to be very difficult over the past few years, it was perhaps a surprise that peak trading fell in line with forecasts for online retail. -
Discover key insights with Paul Walsh, Founder of All Things Amazon.
-
Trustpilot's Paul Kirby On Leveraging The Power Of Reviews For Your Business
23 Feb 2024 Laura DazonMeet Paul Kirby, Trustpilot's Enterprise Customer Success Manager, sharing his journey from media advertising to guiding eCommerce leaders through reviews. -
IMRG reveal industry customer acquisition rates, how long customers should be staying with you, and if you’re spending too much to acquire new customers. This session uses IMRG’s unique market dataset ...
-
Manuel Tonz from Bloomreach on Holistic Commerce and Conversational AI
05 Feb 2024 Laura DazonMeet Manuel, the Director of Client Strategy at Bloomreach. -
How to Win the Connected Customer Experience
04 Feb 2024Brands that succeed in 2024 are likely to be those that connect brand and customer experiences seamlessly, digitally and physically in everyday life: at home, in play, in retail, and more. Faced with ... -
A pretty good Christmas for retailers, but… For many retailers selling in the UK market, the past few years have been notable for a clear dip in customer demand; the economic downturn has been reflec ...
-
What does it take to gain 1 million active mobile app users monthly? How do you reach the ability to deploy any applications or API changes worldwide in 5 minutes or less? Well, Formidable’s Director ...
-
Discover the secrets behind Pandora's colossal success as the world's largest jewellery brand in a session titled "How Product Information Management Powers Pandora's Global Retail Growth." The world’ ...
-
Explore the dynamic landscape of Cross-Border eCommerce and its role in unlocking global growth. This expert panel discusses key strategies, technologies, and trends, offering valuable insights for bu ...
-
How to Take An Established Brand to New Markets
22 Jan 2024Moonpig's Director of New Markets & Ventures, Alexander Toft, shared invaluable insights during the conference session on "Taking an established brand to new markets." Here are the key takeaways: Star ... -
The Livestreaming eCommerce market in China is forecast to reach 700bn RMB (£80bn) in 2023, roughly equivalent to the entire eCommerce market of South Korea. Chinese consumers show an increasing appet ...
-
Are you sold on retail media?
10 Jan 2024Discover key insights with experts from Propeller, Boots Media Group, Microsoft and NielsenIQ -
Trustpilot x Henry Case Study: How the Household Brand Boosted its Growth Through Reviews
10 Jan 2024Henry is a fixture in millions of homes in the UK, and part of their success can be attributed to the hyper-focused view on their customers’ experience and loyalty. -
A checklist for improving your key KPIs with Composable commerce while avoiding the most common pitfalls - drawing from practical experience from Lars Petersen, CEO of Uniform, Tomas A. Krag and Malgo ...
-
In today's highly competitive world, where customers have numerous options and heightened expectations, retailers face the challenge of fostering mutually valuable and long-term relationship with thei ...
-
In this session, uncover how Sitecore Commerce breaks away from the one-size-fits-all approach, empowering brands with unique products to maintain their distinctiveness and deliver unmatched customer ...
-
eCommerce Deep-Dive with Andy Mulcahy from IMRG
11 Dec 2023 Andy MulcahyExplore the aftermath of Black Friday 2023 with Andy Mulcahy's analysis. -
Dive into the dynamic world of eCommerce with Chloë Thomas, renowned Author and Podcast Host of eCommerce MasterPlan, as she moderates a panel discussion featuring David Meakin, Head of Partnerships & ...
-
December 2023 in eCommerce
11 Dec 2023Bite-size updates on what happened in eCommerce this month, to keep you ahead of the curve and inform your campaigns. -
Unlock the power of Artificial Intelligence in commerce growth with Shaun McCran, Head of Commerce Product Marketing for Europe at Adobe.
-
In retail, leaders constantly grapple with challenges and opportunities that compel them to reconsider their commerce strategies. This eCommerce Expo Keynote, chaired by Andrew McClelland, hosted Dean ...
-
Elevate your customer engagement strategy with Anish Chadda, VP of Product at MessageBird