eCommerce Deep-Dive with Andy Mulcahy from IMRG
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So, Black Friday…was it any good this year?
The dust may be settling on the Black Friday period, but the real picture of what just happened can sometimes take a little longer to truly form. The reason for this is that, while it may sound like a day, ‘Black Friday’ actually refers to an extended season of discounting campaigns that launch up to a month (yes, some in October too) before the official day and can continue right into December. Within a peak trading period of that length, lots of things can happen to push it one way or another.
If we just rely on the data, all seems straightforward enough. IMRG forecast a decline of -2% for online sales across the peak Black Friday week, and it came in at -1.9%. A decline yes, but exactly in line with expectation. Does that mean it was ok then? It wasn’t markedly below expectation after all. Yet, although the overall figure came in on the mark, many of the categories that make it up were notably better or worse than expected. November overall came in at -0.8%, against flat growth from last year and, in the context of current trading conditions, that feels like a pretty good result.
The fact that the categories were a bit less predictable tell us something though. How hard were retailers having to work to generate the sales, with conversion down and time-to-purchase up? Was that ‘in line with expectation’ mark hit through really hard work, and was that work not able to push performance any higher? Audio was up +28% online, driven by sales of ear pods – a classic example of in-demand products performing well. But clothing had a weak start to November, though in the final week it got positive growth as the cold snap hit and demand for warmer clothing increased. Was it just the weather that was holding it back, or were other factors at play?
And what of December, as some have dragged their campaigns over into this month? Performance for this month should look a bit better as last year the postal strikes suppressed demand online, hence the year-on-year comparator is weaker. But does that mean it could be assessed as good when the problems last year will likely be a major factor influencing growth rates?
There are still so many ifs and buts that, at the moment, the answer to whether Black Friday was good or not remains…not sure.
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